Bruce Schneier has an interesting article on fighting terror with anti-terror: http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/what_the_terror.html
There's one point that I'd like to highlight from his piece:
“Imagine for a moment what would have happened if [the London plotters] had blown up 10 planes. There would be canceled flights, chaos at airports, bans on carry-on luggage, world leaders talking tough new security measures, political posturing and all sorts of false alarms as jittery people panicked. To a lesser degree, that's basically what's happening right now.”
The most effective thing terrorists could do now is further isolate the Muslim and Southern Asian communities in the West. I'd pointed at this in my article Is Bin Laden Important Anymore?. By isolating those communities and putting them under a cloud of permanent suspicion it creates a culture where
- More terrorists grow organically in their host countries
- More people in non-Muslim nations distrust all Muslims
- And we adopt all of the markings of a truly violent conflict between Islam and non-Islamic cultures
The recent acts that Schneier highlights of people refusing to fly with South Asians, with people hyper-ventilating on planes out of fear of blowing up, points to a ratcheting up of people's suspicions, suspicions which will only drive communities further apart. Conspiracy theories would abound on both sides of the cultural divide, further increasing the distrust. Angry young men, desperate, and feeling hopeless, will organize themselves into active, undirected but dedicated cells, and the cycle of real violence will continue. I believe this to be bin Laden's primary goal, and I think we're 30 - 40% of the way there.
Keeping these ideas in mind, Rich Harlos and I ran through some mental exercises recently where we identified one tactic, one which I think we'll see used soon, if it hasn’t been already:
Handlers in another country would create several cells in Western communities, and are given plans for several different acts to carry out. A month or two before the terrorist plans are to be carried out, those same handlers who organized the cells would leak information about the plans so that the information is intercepted by Western intelligence. The information is quickly analyzed and used to send the police to arrest the cells. The arrests of more cells causes further panic, distrust, and tighter security measures. Politicians would call for even tighter immigration controls, more limits on people’s freedoms, and broader police powers. And people would, for the most part, give in.
To add one further wrinkle though, if I were planning this whole affair, the leaked information would contain details for twice as many cells as really existed. The threat of ghost cells never found would make police and intelligence forces twist in the wind and arrest scores of innocent people in the hope of snaring terrorists that never existed in the first place.
The psychological toll taken on the Western nations would be immeasurable. I’d be inclined to think that hate crimes against Muslims and Indians would be almost tolerated, and people would almost certainly protest for all South Asians to leave the country, causing irreparable harm to our economy and culture. In fact, I think this constant culture of fear and panic is already destroying our culture.
In light of that, I think Schneier's point, and mine previously, about not over-reacting to this information, and to acts of terrorism in general is crucial to not letting the terrorists win.
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